Although 14 points clear at this stage, Leinster are not racing certainties to end up on top but only an implosion of monumental proportions will deny them a 'home' semi. However, nine points separates second placed Ospreys from Cardiff in seventh and the Blues have two games in hand.
Munster also have two games in hand and will have home advantage when they meet the leaders at the end of this month. They'll also have home advantage when they play Warriors and Ulster but for them, perhaps ths evening's clash in Rodney Parade represents the start of a crucial March period.
The tie against the Dragons is the first of three successive games on the road - a trip to Aironi and Connacht to follow - and they end the month with that Leinster clash, a week before they take on Ulster in the Heineken Cup quarter final.